Why Jeff Thinks Value Will Crush It

It may seem contradictory that Jeff believes 1) US stocks are overvalued and headed for a correction and 2) value stocks are a good buy. But these positions are really just two sides of the same coin. Value investors like Warren Buffett (and Jeff) believe it is best to buy stocks when they are trading at a discount to a diligent assessment of their value. Many if not most US stocks are the opposite of this, and trading for probably more than they are worth, not less. Still, some good deals are lurking out there, if you know where to look, and this is how Camarda approaches stocks. While value has been out of favor for a decade or more – the arrow below in this graph indicates the current 10 year period of value underperforming growth. The red bars are periods where value did worse, the blue ones where it did better. As you can see, value did better most of the time, and actually did better by some pretty big percentages. We think that’s actually great news, because the recent underperformance likely indicates that value will crush it going forward. Looking at the second graph, we see that since 1937 the few red periods where value did worse – like recently – were followed by long, significant periods of value outperformance. If history repeats as it often does, this should bring many smiles to Camarda investors, for a long, long time.

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